Polymarket Bets on Bitcoin's 2026 Future

While some analysts predict Bitcoin might soar to $200,000 before 2026, most Polymarket bettors are betting that the top cryptocurrency will drop below $100,000 this year. As of Wednesday, these traders estimated a 61% chance of such a dip, a decline from the 72% they recorded on Monday after Bitcoin briefly fell below $110,000 for the first time in over six weeks. Analyst Min Jung from Presto Research noted that while current sell-offs from major holders have met with strong buy-side demand, the crucial question is whether sufficient new investors will enter to absorb this supply. If demand wanes, a fall below $100,000 becomes increasingly likely. Having reached new all-time highs recently, Bitcoin hasn't traded below $100,000 since June and was valued at $112,081.24 as of 5:19 PM ET, according to The Block Price Page. Recently, a Bitcoin whale swap created significant downward pressure when 22,400 BTC were exchanged for ETH. Despite these sales causing volatility, demand has stabilized Bitcoin's price. Investment specialist David Hernandez from 21Shares noted, 'Bitcoin sell-offs signify a maturing market.' While a steep correction may dampen short-term enthusiasm, it could lead to a more balanced distribution of Bitcoin among retail and institutional investors, thereby strengthening its long-term foundation. Demand for Bitcoin appears robust, as demonstrated by Metaplanet's plan to raise ¥130 billion ($880 million) through an international share sale, with ¥124 billion ($837 million) earmarked for Bitcoin investments by October 2025. Another firm disclosed acquiring over 3,000 Bitcoin, boosting its corporate holdings to roughly 632,000 BTC. K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde cautioned of probable Bitcoin price weakness due to rising leverage. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has surged to heights not seen in two years, signaling a potentially precarious market situation akin to leverage buildups before past collapses. Hernandez predicts Bitcoin will likely remain above $100,000, citing the potential impacts of new pro-crypto legislation and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could positively influence Bitcoin and other risk assets. Disclaimer: The Block maintains independence and objectivity in its reporting, despite Foresight Ventures being a majority investor. This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal, financial, or investment advice.