Bitcoin Balances on Edge Ahead of Key Macroeconomic Data

Bitcoin is currently 9% below its all-time high of $124,128, as short-term investors navigate stress ahead of significant U.S. macro data releases. Recent numbers show a decline of over 4.5% in the past month, driven by increased volatility and monetary policy uncertainties in the U.S. Data from The Block indicates that the supply of Bitcoin currently in profit has reached 90%, which is historically significant. Staying above or falling below this threshold may influence whether Bitcoin heads back to its peak or retraces. A CryptoQuant analyst stated, “Dropping back below this 90% threshold has often marked the start of a corrective phase, whether short- or long-term.” Glassnode's latest analysis outlines a six-month trading range, with support around $107,000 to $108,900 and resistance near the three-month holder cost basis of $113,600. Additionally, Bitcoin is trading below the average one-month acquisition price of $115,600, putting pressure on new buyers. If Bitcoin moves back towards resistance, it may encounter supply from underwater holders, while a price breakdown could lead to a decline to the $93,000 to $95,000 range. Glassnode describes the current realized losses as “shallow,” while the spot demand remains neutral, and perpetual futures positioning appears fragile yet bearish. The six-month cost basis represents the first line of defense, and any upward movement might tempt stressed holders to sell. “Currently, Bitcoin trades below the cost basis of both the one-month and three-month categories, leaving these investors under stress,” said Glassnode. “Any relief rally is likely to meet resistance as short-term holders try to exit at breakeven.” This situation comes as investors cautiously assess risk assets following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week, coinciding with the impending release of the U.S. second-quarter GDP estimate and other critical economic indicators. Upcoming data includes job statistics, the Consumer Price Index on Sept. 11, and the Federal Open Market Committee session on Sept. 17. ETF Activity Amid Strong Fundamentals Timothy Misir, the head of research at BRN, echoes a similar perspective, noting that Bitcoin is trading just beneath the one- and three-month holder cost bases, with the six-month level acting as crucial support. He cites intraday resistance around $112,000, arguing that a substantial move above this price with significant volume could pave the way for gains towards $116,000. However, volatile price movements might test the $108,700 level again for consolidation. Despite neutral sentiment in spot trading and a slightly negative cumulative volume in futures, Misir points to substantial institutional demand. Recent flows into U.S. spot ETFs have added approximately $81.3 million to Bitcoin and $307 million to Ether funds in just one day. ETFs, corporations, and governments are reportedly buying 3,600 BTC daily, about four times the current miner issuance. Japan's Metaplanet is planning to raise around $881 million to purchase nearly $837 million worth of Bitcoin through September and October, introducing new demand for Q4. Moreover, network fundamentals remain strong, highlighted by an all-time-high hash rate, indicative of miner confidence despite the current strain on short-term investors. Meanwhile, Ether continues to stabilize around the $4,500 to $4,600 range, supported by steady ETF demand. Solana is also sustaining above the $200 mark, maintaining its position as a high-beta market leader when risk appetite resumes. Despite this, analysts caution that the market could swing either way. “Bitcoin and crypto balances are on a knife-edge,” Misir states. “The current strategy should focus on a neutral-to-cautious risk approach while awaiting confirmed breakouts from established price levels, as ETH continues to lead for now.”